Trial and Error

I was listening to the podcast from TED Global by Tim Harford on trial and error and the God complex.  The basic premise of the podcast is that there is tremendous value in being willing to fail on the way to success, provided that the conclusion is not already foregone in one’s mind (having a God complex).

Harford brings in examples from all walks of life to illustrate his point, but the one I enjoyed the most was his example of talking about how Unilever designed a nozzle for making laundry detergent.  At first, Unilever hired a mathematician (God) to solve the problem, but ended up evolving the design by trial and error.

At the end, Harford talks about the use of trial and error in schools and even in politics.  It got me thinking about the recent passage of Obama’s healthcare plan.  Listening to this podcast helped to clarify my thinking on this (and other similar sea change kind of decisions).  The question is not what is the right answer, but how we get there.  We simply don’t know the best way to solve the healthcare problem, but instead of trying things out in small groups and finding our way to the best answer, we pass massive legislation that is nearly impossible to understand or change once in place.

I really enjoyed this presentation, and found it quite thought-provoking.  I hope you enjoy it.

What complex problems are you presuming the correct answer for in your environment?